3 Major Types of Project Complexity and How to Manage Them

About this Episode

In this episode Johnny speaks to renowned lecturer Stephen Carver about Project Complexity and how the various types can be managed.

Rated consistently as one of the top lecturers at Cranfield University, Stephen has a unique ability to enthuse others and create "buzz" around the traditionally "dull" subjects of Project & Programme Management – an inspirationalist, mentor and practitioner.

Key Takeaways

• Three complexity buckets simplify management - Blue (structural), Green (emergent), and Red (sociopolitical) provide practical framework for understanding project challenges

• Sociopolitical complexity dominates - 70% of project problems stem from people and politics, yet only 10% of training addresses these issues

• Change can be opportunity, not threat - Embracing emergent complexity enables competitive advantage rather than defensive responses

• Soft skills drive hard results - Managing stakeholders and relationships is more critical than technical project management tools

• Maturity requires mindset shift - Moving beyond process to level 4-5 competency demands embracing complexity and uncertainty

• Simulation reveals human dynamics - Role-play exercises expose the complex stakeholder interactions that traditional training misses

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Excerpts from "3 major types of project complexity and how to manage them"

Why did project complexity spark your interest?

My background as an engineer. A lot of project management people are brought up as engineers or computer specialists. We're taught to think in straight lines, that A+B=C and methodology. Sometimes projects just don't work in that way. Increasingly clients are saying that our projects just don't work with conventional program tools, are there new ways to see the management of change? They got heavily into complexity.

Breakdown of project complexity

There are over 40 different identified types of complexity published. If I came to you as a practitioner as said I want you to keep a record of 40 different types of complexities in your project, you wouldn't be too happy with that burden.

We reduced these complexities down to the "three buckets". It wasn't a perfect science, but a model that could be used by ordinary people on ordinary projects. The three buckets are:

Blue Bucket – structural complexity

Green Bucket – emergent complexity

Red Bucket – sociopolitical complexity

The three-bucket breakdown

The Blue Bucket—structural complexity—is all about the traditional project and program words. Like scope, size, number of people involved, number of contracts involved, number of office locations involved. It's a measure of how many bits effectively you've got in your project. A large oil refinery is what we call a high structural complexity type project.

The Green Bucket—the emergent complexity—is basically change. How much is your project changing as your trying to manage the project? This could be the change of client or the price of oil going from $150 to $50, so suddenly your whole project has changed. It's all about the world affecting your project whether you like it or not.

In traditional project management, change is considered to be bad. We try to create boundaries around our projects with strict change control. For lot of projects today, change is inevitable. Once you stop seeing it as a threat to your project and embrace it, then there can be great advantages.

The Red Bucket—sociopolitical—is the touchy-feely, personality, politics, personality, and the behaviors under stress. It's messy. On the whole, projects are very logical things. What I've found is that as soon as you put people on a project common sense goes straight out the window. They start to behave in slightly strange or nonlinear ways.

Advanced Project Management Complexity: Understanding the Intersection of Types and Uncertainty in Modern Technologies

The landscape of project management complexity has evolved significantly as organizations grapple with increasingly sophisticated challenges that span multiple dimensions simultaneously. Modern project managers must navigate a complex web of interdependent factors that influence project success, requiring advanced skills and techniques to address the multifaceted nature of contemporary project environments.

Project management complexity manifests itself through various interconnected dimensions that require sophisticated management complexity approaches. The traditional linear thinking that characterized early project management practices has given way to more nuanced understanding of how different types of complexity interact and influence each other throughout the project lifecycle. This evolution demands that project managers develop enhanced capabilities to recognize, assess, and respond to complex project scenarios effectively.

The degree of complexity in modern projects often stems from the integration of advanced technologies with traditional project management methodologies. Organizations implementing digital transformation initiatives face unprecedented challenges as they attempt to balance technological innovation with established business processes. The resource allocation decisions in these scenarios require careful consideration of multiple factors including stakeholder expectations, technological constraints, and organizational readiness for change.

Complex projects demand sophisticated strategies that address both technical and human elements simultaneously. The way organizations approach these challenges often determines the ultimate success or failure of major initiatives. Project managers working with complex projects must develop enhanced skills in systems thinking, stakeholder engagement, and adaptive planning to navigate the inherent uncertainty that characterizes these endeavors.

The team dynamics in complex project environments require specialized management approaches that recognize the interconnected nature of various project elements. Successful project managers employ a range of techniques to coordinate multiple workstreams while maintaining visibility into emerging risks and opportunities. These management approaches must be flexible enough to accommodate changing requirements while maintaining focus on strategic objectives and deliverable quality standards.

How are the various levels of complexities divided across projects?

For example, an oil refinery is a high structural project that's high scale. The emergent complexity is probably fairly low by the time they start building it. The sociopolitical will be pretty low.

The project I did was low structural. Converting the ship wasn't exactly brain surgery—it was straightforward. The emergent complexity was enormous. Every day it was a new adventure of figuring out how we were going to finance it, operate it, whether all of the mayors of the coastal cities wanted us in their port and when they wanted us in. This is where I learned that change can be good and that it's an opportunity. The socio-political was pretty low.

At the moment, I work with the U.K. government with some of their projects. With Brexit, the big thing is sociopolitical—we've got huge ideas and egos crashing around. Structurally, once they decided the direction they're going to go in, it's not that hard. Most of these projects are A to B type projects it's just we don't know what direction they're going to go in. Initially, you're going to have high levels of emergent complexity on those projects as well.

Three different types of projects and types of balances between the three buckets

Navigating Project Complexity Through Enhanced Project Manager Skills and Advanced Stakeholder Management Techniques

The evolution of project management complexity requires project managers to develop sophisticated skills that extend far beyond traditional technical competencies. Modern project environments demand professionals who can effectively manage uncertainty while coordinating diverse stakeholders across multiple organizational boundaries. The ability to adapt management approaches based on the specific type of complexity present in each situation has become a critical differentiator for successful project outcomes.

Advanced stakeholder management represents one of the most critical skills for addressing management complexity in contemporary project environments. The traditional approach of treating stakeholders as a homogeneous group has proven inadequate for managing the nuanced relationships that characterize complex projects. Project managers must develop sophisticated techniques for identifying, categorizing, and engaging with diverse stakeholder groups, each with unique motivations, constraints, and success criteria.

The integration of advanced technologies into project management practices has created new dimensions of complexity that require innovative management strategies. Digital tools and platforms offer unprecedented capabilities for project coordination and monitoring, but they also introduce new types of challenges related to data management, system integration, and user adoption. Project managers must balance the potential benefits of technological solutions with the inherent risks and complexity they introduce to project environments.

Effective resource management in complex project environments requires sophisticated allocation strategies that consider multiple competing priorities simultaneously. The traditional approach of optimizing individual resource utilization has given way to more holistic perspectives that prioritize overall system performance and strategic alignment. This shift demands enhanced analytical capabilities and the ability to make trade-off decisions based on incomplete information and uncertain future conditions.

The factors that influence project complexity are often interconnected in ways that create emergent behaviors and unexpected outcomes. Successful project managers develop pattern recognition capabilities that enable them to identify early warning signs of complexity escalation and implement proactive mitigation strategies. This proactive approach to complexity management represents a significant advancement over reactive approaches that address problems only after they manifest fully.

In regards to emergent, does good risk management not counteract the amount of emergent complexity?

To a certain extent, but what we're finding is that although you can do risk registers, the rate of change in the world means that by the time you've written your risk register and gotten it approved, the world has changed again. The markets, technology, and fashion have changed. Sometimes it's good. You can't nail down a project and have all the changes and risks. You have to open your mind. You can react efficiently and effectively to change with an open mindset, not getting overwhelmed.

"The soft stuff is the hard stuff."

Absolutely. Let's take one of the things for sociopolitical—the stakeholders. I do lots of work with clients on the stakeholders. The idea that there isn't a single client, there are many clients internally and externally. It's how you manage them all. Stakeholders tend to change their minds, and disciplined people have a hard time accepting this.

We do a simulation running a project before the real project, and they are stunned. It makes them engaged with multiple stakeholders. In real life sometimes stakeholders tell you what they want, but it's not actually what they want—they're under pressure, unsure, it's the early stages of the project. We learn to communicate with stakeholders and build relationships through different styles of communication to get more richness of information and in turn manage them.

Is that a facilitated role-play or the actual stakeholders?

It's a software simulation The 12 stakeholders appear on your computer screen. You can talk to them, mix them up regarding meetings, and it's a very human program—you can even anger them.

Often when logical people play this simulation they fail to understand the complex interactions between people. That's what we try to get out in the end, the idea that it's not straight lines or a controlled environment. People are infinitely complex in the way that they behave, especially under pressure.

Leveraging Advanced Tools and Dimensions of Project Complexity for Strategic Competitive Advantage

The contemporary project management landscape requires sophisticated tools that can address multiple dimensions of complexity simultaneously while providing actionable insights for decision-making. Organizations that successfully navigate complex project environments typically employ integrated technology platforms that enable real-time visibility into project performance across all complexity dimensions. These tools must be capable of handling the dynamic nature of modern projects while supporting collaborative workflows among distributed teams.

The dimensions of project complexity extend beyond the traditional three-bucket model to encompass additional factors such as technological integration, regulatory compliance, and cultural considerations. Each dimension requires specialized management approaches and tools that can address specific challenges while maintaining coherence across the overall project framework. The successful integration of these various dimensions requires sophisticated project management methodologies that can adapt to changing circumstances while maintaining strategic alignment.

Advanced project managers recognize that the ways organizations approach complexity management often determine their competitive positioning in dynamic market environments. The way complexity is framed and addressed can transform potential obstacles into strategic advantages, particularly when organizations develop capabilities that competitors struggle to replicate. This strategic perspective on complexity management requires sophisticated understanding of how different complexity types interact with business objectives and market dynamics.

The challenges associated with managing multiple complexity dimensions simultaneously require innovative approaches that go beyond traditional project management methodologies. Organizations must develop adaptive capabilities that enable them to respond effectively to emerging complexity while maintaining focus on strategic objectives and stakeholder value creation. This adaptive capacity represents a critical organizational competency that distinguishes high-performing organizations from those that struggle with complex project delivery.

Modern project environments demand integration strategies that address both technical and human factors in comprehensive frameworks that support sustainable project success. The degree of integration required often exceeds traditional project management capabilities, requiring specialized expertise in systems thinking, organizational psychology, and change management. These integrated approaches recognize that project success depends on the effective coordination of multiple interconnected elements rather than optimization of individual components.

Which of the three types of complexities has given you the most trouble?

About 70% said socio-political is the biggest problem we face on projects, 20% for emergent, and 10% for structural. 80% of all our training and certification concentrate on the structural, 10% for emergent and 10 for political.

Most of our problems come from sociopolitical and yet most of our training as project and change managers are structural. We receive very little training in sociopolitical or emergent.

Why?

A lot of people came from a high structural background regarding project management and went into other industries assuming they would be the same. We have to look at dynamic approaches and enrich our skills.

Five levels of project and program competency

1. Completely incompetent, no structure, and occasionally a project works.

2. Bits of the organization get project and change management, but unfortunately, the rest of the organization don't.

3. The CEO isn't happy and implements a common methodology.

4. Methodologies that people buy into and modify them as needed to get their work done.

5. Success. Bring in change; it's our opportunity.

What's the strategic advantage of those five levels?

1. Strategy is a waste of time.

2. Some projects will work, but on the whole, they will go wrong—about 70-80%.

3. About 60% of your projects are going wrong, but you have a lovely ordered trail.

4. About 80% of your project success, so you can talk about strategy.

5. Your strategy is faster and more adaptable than anyone else.

There was a lack of barrier at level three. Process would get you from level one to level three, and it would get you from level two to three, but not to level four or five. If you just shove process down people's throats, then they revert back to level two and one behaviors. It's all about seizing the sociopolitical and touchy-feely side that will move you on to level four and level five.

Breaking the barriers

This is a barrier that people have to think in a different way and deal with complexity. They need to deal with all of the touchy-feely stuff as well as the process.

Show Notes

Connect with Stephen on LinkedIn
Stephen also has some great videos on YouTube.
Download the paper that Stephen referred to in the interview “How Hard Can It Be?: Actively Managing Complexity in Technology Projects” by Harvey R. Maylor , Neil W. Turner , and Ruth Murray-Webster here